Who blew up the Nord Stream pipelines?

Russia. Duh.

OK, I can argue it as well.

First of all, remember that Russia is an irrational regime:

The basic concept is that for certain unstable regimes (or even stable ones with no effective means of resolving internal disputes peacefully, particularly the succession of power) domestic power games are far more important than anything foreign, and that foreigners are only symbols to use in domestic factional fights.

The need to show ideological purity & resolve – “virtue signaling” in modern terms – as a means of achieving power inside the ruling in-group becomes more important than objective reality. Only the internal power matters as outside reality is merely a symbol to be used in the internal power game.

[…]

The Putin Regime has checked all the necessary ‘lack of clear succession,’ self-destructive with the outside world factional actions for power, multiple foreign invasions and ultimate jump off the cliff stupidity that Imperial Japan did from 1931-1945.

And by “self-destructive with the outside world factional actions for power” I am referring to the Putin Regime’s pre-Ukraine War [novichok] nerve gas & Polonium-210 murders, plus recently tooling around a pair of tac-nukes near Swedish air space.

@bellingcat  has a lot on the Putin Regimes’ murder of Russian political opponents. The difference between authoritarian and kleptocratic irrational regimes is their relationship with money.
In authoritarian regimes it’s all about power with money as a perk.

In Putin’s kleptocratic regime it is all about money.
Trent Telenko

Without a clear line of succession these regimes consist of people telling those in charge the things they want to hear, no matter the relation to reality.

The purpose of the explosions is not, as I first thought, to show Europe that Russia can and will destroy our energy infrastructure but rather to destroy both pipelines so utterly that they cannot be repaired.

Unless the sanctions on the Russian energy sector is lifted, that is.

In short, the explosions and destruction of the Nord Stream 1 & 2 pipelines is to get Germany to put maximum pressure on our allies to lift sanctions and preferably force a peace negotiation between Ukraine and Russia. A peace negotiation that would de facto be a surrender by Ukraine.

And the reason Russia believes Germany might do this is that they have shown again and again (and quite recently) that they fear further escalation of the war and further energy supply disruptions. I am convinced, had Germany been absolutely clear that nothing at all would stop them from supporting Ukraine’s fight for their land, Russia would have left the pipelines alone as a destruction wouldn’t serve any purpose (yet).

It seems unlikely that submarines, divers, or even unmanned subs were used to detonate the pipelines as all of these are risky and there is a much simpler way, provided you control the pipelines. For example, it is not unreasonable to imagine that one of the maintenance “pipeline pigs” could have been inserted into the pipelines with an explosive attached.

This would be a low risk way to destroy the pipelines.

Where would such explosions do the most damage? A pipeline in itself is not difficult to replace but the underwater compressor stations are. Imagine if the explosions happened a few kilometers apart, on each side of a compressor station that services both pipelines? Like, for instance the two northern gas leak sites:

If there is – or, after receiving the pressure of 5-10 kilometers of ignited natural gas from both directions, was – a compressor station there this would create exactly the destruction that would require lifting the sanctions on the Russian energy sector to fix.

See also Emma Ashford’s thread exploring the whos and the whys of the explosions.

Yes, I am writing this from the comfort of my home, a long way from the site. I haven’t been there. I don’t know anything about pipelines, nor explosives. In short, I could be wrong.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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