Sea Level Rise higher than expected

The estimated future SLR (Sea Level Rise) was just adjusted by IPCC. From the previous report (AR5) the estimate is now about 55 cm over the next 80 years (RCP4.5, range is 39-72 cm)*.

In the worst-case scenario it is now up to 110 cm (RCP8.5, range is 61-110 cm), up from 78 cm before**.

Meanwhile we are forcing our governments to implement expensive, inefficient methods to combat global warming. Methods that will keep the poor nations poor and will do nothing to prevent the current trend***.

*) Personally, I think that at this rate this is a smaller problem than what could potentially happen to the Gulf Stream. There are signs that the Gulf Stream is being weakened and this might be due to ice melting in the Arctic.

55 cm SLR over 80 years can be handled by adaption, whereas a 10℃ drop in local temperatures is serious.

Of course, we can hope that the hypothesis that it isn’t really the Gulf Stream that keeps us warm is true.

**) As an aside, the worst-case scenario is nowhere near the alarmist scenario. Global warming is a serious problem that we must handle, but it is not an extinction level crisis.

***) Political rant, in the shortest form possible: Politicians are (generally) informed by scientists and analysts but will prefer to implement policies that will appears best to their voters. For a case study, see Germany and their reliance on Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) which so far has not only increased the cost of energy and but also how much CO2 is produced.

 

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1 Response to Sea Level Rise higher than expected

  1. Pingback: Apparently I was a pessimist | Henning's blog

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